Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023675 0.026910 0.030440 0.034578 0.039301 0.044525 0.050749
2025-02-23 0.018450 0.022831 0.028042 0.034706 0.043020 0.053071 0.066181
2025-03-02 0.015349 0.020109 0.026109 0.034247 0.045034 0.058891 0.078123
2025-03-09 0.013601 0.018672 0.025376 0.034920 0.048220 0.066185 0.092444
2025-03-16 0.011937 0.017057 0.024107 0.034573 0.049800 0.071281 0.104126
2025-03-23 0.011037 0.016350 0.023941 0.035644 0.053353 0.079345 0.120753
2025-03-30 0.009706 0.014846 0.022437 0.034539 0.053505 0.082345 0.130018
2025-04-06 0.008749 0.013786 0.021454 0.034067 0.054490 0.086590 0.141513
2025-04-13 0.007750 0.012549 0.020062 0.032781 0.054003 0.088394 0.149150
2025-04-20 0.007382 0.012276 0.020148 0.033859 0.057423 0.096774 0.168518
2025-04-27 0.007008 0.011950 0.020108 0.034700 0.060491 0.104808 0.188068
2025-05-04 0.006709 0.011718 0.020193 0.035746 0.063984 0.113856 0.210300
2025-05-11 0.006207 0.011099 0.019579 0.035536 0.065283 0.119257 0.226650
2025-05-18 0.005813 0.010636 0.019196 0.035707 0.067298 0.126161 0.246629
2025-05-25 0.005367 0.010035 0.018507 0.035233 0.068031 0.130703 0.262439
2025-06-01 0.005123 0.009787 0.018441 0.035926 0.071060 0.139903 0.288522
2025-06-08 0.004768 0.009293 0.017866 0.035568 0.071964 0.144985 0.306638
2025-06-15 0.004618 0.009186 0.018022 0.036671 0.075919 0.156568 0.339728
2025-06-22 0.004230 0.008568 0.017121 0.035533 0.075107 0.158208 0.351362
2025-06-29 0.003946 0.008139 0.016560 0.035048 0.075618 0.162662 0.369689
2025-07-06 0.003604 0.007559 0.015644 0.033723 0.074179 0.162754 0.378040
2025-07-13 0.003520 0.007518 0.015844 0.034833 0.078227 0.175317 0.416869
2025-07-20 0.003418 0.007428 0.015932 0.035699 0.081799 0.187139 0.455225